EUR/USD Market Analysis: Bump and Run Reversal Pattern in Focus
Date: July 3, 2025
Pair: EUR/USD (Daily Chart)
📝 Pattern Overview: Bump and Run Reversal (BARR)
The EUR/USD is currently showing signs of a classic Bump and Run Reversal Top (BARR) — a pattern often seen at the end of prolonged uptrends before a sharp corrective move.
What is a BARR Top?
It consists of:
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A lead-in phase with steady, controlled price increases.
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Followed by a bump phase — a sharp, accelerated rise beyond the trend channel.
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And finally, a run phase, where price reverses aggressively, breaking below the channel support and retesting earlier price zones.
📊 Technical Structure on the Chart
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The pair has been respecting a rising trend channel since the mid-point of its rally.
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The pair is now testing the upper boundary of this channel, near 1.1795, with strong bullish momentum — creating the “bump” leg.
This is often where markets peak in a BARR pattern, before reversing sharply as overextended bulls start to unwind positions.
📌 Key Technical Levels
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Immediate Resistance: 1.1795 – 1.1800
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Critical Level to Watch: Break and close below the lower channel trendline (around 1.1650–1.1600) would confirm the start of the “run” phase
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Downside Targets: 1.1500, then 1.1350 if breakdown accelerates
📉 Scenario Outlook
✅ If the pattern confirms:
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Expect a rejection around 1.1795–1.1800
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A breakdown through the lower channel support would validate the Bump and Run Reversal
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First pullback target: 1.1600
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Extended downside: 1.1500 and 1.1350
📌 Invalidation:
A strong breakout above 1.1800 with sustained daily closes would invalidate the BARR top setup and suggest a continuation move toward 1.1940–1.2000
📖 Conclusion
The EUR/USD is at a critical technical juncture. The sharp surge toward the upper channel resistance hints at a possible Bump and Run Reversal Top in development. Traders should closely monitor price action near the 1.1795–1.1800 zone for signs of exhaustion or breakout continuation.
Risk management and confirmation signals (like bearish reversal candlesticks or volume spikes on breakdown) are essential before entering positions based on this pattern.
📊 Trade Details:
