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September 1, 2025 9:11 am
September 2025 Gold Monthly Technical & Fundamental Report
Date: 01 September 2025
📍 Session: Monthly Outlook
💰 Asset: XAUUSD (Gold/USD)
🟩 BUY SIGNAL DETAILS (XAUUSD SEPTEMBER RANGE SETUP)
- Buy Entry: Around 3450
- Stop Loss (SL): 3385
- Target: 3800
📉 Risk: 3450 – 3385 = 65 points
📈 Reward: 3800 – 3450 = 350 points
✅ RRR: 350 ÷ 65 ≈ 5.38
🔍 Comment: This is a long-term positional trade setup for September. If Gold sustains above 3450, momentum could extend toward 3800, but volatility is expected around major US data releases.
📊 TRADING SUMMARY TABLE
| Signal Type | Entry Range | Stop Loss | Target | RRR | Comment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🟩 Buy Setup | 3450 | 3385 | 3800 | 5.38 | Monthly bullish structure if sustained |
📌 KEY FUNDAMENTALS TO WATCH – SEPTEMBER 2025
1. US CPI (Inflation Data)
- 🔥 Impact Strength: High
- Bullish for Gold: Softer CPI → weaker USD → lower yields → gold up.
- Bearish for Gold: Hot CPI → stronger USD → higher yields → gold pressured.
2. US Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP)
- 🔥 Impact Strength: High
- Bullish: Weak NFP → Fed may ease faster → gold up.
- Bearish: Strong NFP → delays rate cuts → gold down.
3. Federal Reserve FOMC Meeting & Speeches
- 🔥 Impact Strength: High
- Bullish: Dovish signals, hints of cuts.
- Bearish: Hawkish stance, slower policy easing.
4. US GDP Revision (Q2 Final)
- 📊 Impact Strength: Medium
- Bullish: Weak GDP → slowdown fears → safe-haven demand.
- Bearish: Strong GDP → Fed stays tighter → gold capped.
5. Geopolitical Events & Global Risks
- 📊 Impact Strength: Medium–High
- Bullish: Escalations (wars, sanctions, China-Taiwan, oil shocks).
- Bearish: Risk-on global mood.
6. Asian Festive Demand (India & China)
- 📊 Impact Strength: Medium
- Bullish: Festive/wedding season drives buying.
- Bearish: High prices reduce imports.
7. Bond Yields & US Dollar Index (DXY)
- 📊 Impact Strength: Medium–High
- Bullish: Lower yields + weaker USD.
- Bearish: Rising yields + stronger USD.
🧭 FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW – SEPTEMBER 2025
- US Dollar Dynamics: Weakening bias supports gold.
- Fed Policy Outlook: Markets expect rate cuts later in 2025 → bullish bias.
- Macro Drivers: Inflation trends + yields remain decisive.
- Institutional Demand: ETFs stable, hedge funds cautious.
- Physical Demand: Strong seasonal buying from India & China.
💭 SENTIMENT SNAPSHOT
| Sector | Sentiment | Comment |
|---|---|---|
| Central Banks | Bullish | Continued reserve accumulation |
| Retail Traders | Bullish | High long exposure — risk of overbought |
| Institutional Flows | Mixed | ETFs steady, funds trimming longs |
| Asian Demand | Strong | Festive/wedding buying support |
| Analysts | Bullish | Many eye 3800+ levels |
📌 STRATEGIC BIAS – SEPTEMBER 2025
🟩 Bullish Bias: Long-term buy setup from 3450 targeting 3800, SL 3385.
🚫 Avoid shorts unless macro shocks reverse momentum.
⚠️ RISKS TO MONITOR
- US CPI (Sept release) → inflation volatility.
- NFP Jobs Data → can flip short-term momentum.
- Fed Meeting & Speeches → tone shift risk.
- ETF Flows → watch institutional moves.
- Unexpected Geopolitical Escalation → safe-haven spikes.
📝 DISCLAIMER
This analysis is for educational purposes only and not financial advice. Trading involves significant risk — always use proper risk management.
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This topic was modified 1 week ago 2 times by Fredrik
