September 2025 Gold Monthly Technical & Fundamental Report

Date: 01 September 2025
📍 Session: Monthly Outlook
💰 Asset: XAUUSD (Gold/USD)

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🟩 BUY SIGNAL DETAILS (XAUUSD SEPTEMBER RANGE SETUP)

• Buy Entry: Around 3450
• Stop Loss (SL): 3385
• Target: 3800

📉 Risk: 3450 – 3385 = 65 points
📈 Reward: 3800 – 3450 = 350 points
✅ RRR: 350 ÷ 65 ≈ 5.38

🔍 Comment: This is a long-term positional trade setup for September. If Gold sustains above 3450, momentum could extend toward 3800, but volatility is expected around major US data releases.

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📊 TRADING SUMMARY TABLE

Signal Type	Entry Range	Stop Loss	Target	RRR	Comment
🟩 Buy Setup	3450	3385	3800	5.38	Monthly bullish structure if sustained

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📌 KEY FUNDAMENTALS TO WATCH – SEPTEMBER 2025

1. US CPI (Inflation Data)

• 🔥 Impact Strength: High
• Bullish for Gold: Softer CPI → weaker USD → lower yields → gold up.
• Bearish for Gold: Hot CPI → stronger USD → higher yields → gold pressured.

2. US Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP)

• 🔥 Impact Strength: High
• Bullish: Weak NFP → Fed may ease faster → gold up.
• Bearish: Strong NFP → delays rate cuts → gold down.

3. Federal Reserve FOMC Meeting & Speeches

• 🔥 Impact Strength: High
• Bullish: Dovish signals, hints of cuts.
• Bearish: Hawkish stance, slower policy easing.

4. US GDP Revision (Q2 Final)

• 📊 Impact Strength: Medium
• Bullish: Weak GDP → slowdown fears → safe-haven demand.
• Bearish: Strong GDP → Fed stays tighter → gold capped.

5. Geopolitical Events & Global Risks

• 📊 Impact Strength: Medium–High
• Bullish: Escalations (wars, sanctions, China-Taiwan, oil shocks).
• Bearish: Risk-on global mood.

6. Asian Festive Demand (India & China)

• 📊 Impact Strength: Medium
• Bullish: Festive/wedding season drives buying.
• Bearish: High prices reduce imports.

7. Bond Yields & US Dollar Index (DXY)

• 📊 Impact Strength: Medium–High
• Bullish: Lower yields + weaker USD.
• Bearish: Rising yields + stronger USD.

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🧭 FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW – SEPTEMBER 2025

• US Dollar Dynamics: Weakening bias supports gold.
• Fed Policy Outlook: Markets expect rate cuts later in 2025 → bullish bias.
• Macro Drivers: Inflation trends + yields remain decisive.
• Institutional Demand: ETFs stable, hedge funds cautious.
• Physical Demand: Strong seasonal buying from India & China.

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💭 SENTIMENT SNAPSHOT

Sector	Sentiment	Comment
Central Banks	Bullish	Continued reserve accumulation
Retail Traders	Bullish	High long exposure — risk of overbought
Institutional Flows	Mixed	ETFs steady, funds trimming longs
Asian Demand	Strong	Festive/wedding buying support
Analysts	Bullish	Many eye 3800+ levels

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📌 STRATEGIC BIAS – SEPTEMBER 2025

🟩 Bullish Bias: Long-term buy setup from 3450 targeting 3800, SL 3385.
🚫 Avoid shorts unless macro shocks reverse momentum.

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⚠️ RISKS TO MONITOR

• US CPI (Sept release) → inflation volatility.
• NFP Jobs Data → can flip short-term momentum.
• Fed Meeting & Speeches → tone shift risk.
• ETF Flows → watch institutional moves.
• Unexpected Geopolitical Escalation → safe-haven spikes.

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📝 DISCLAIMER

This analysis is for educational purposes only and not financial advice. Trading involves significant risk — always use proper risk management.

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